Affordability Concerns Shape Primary Results
EBLC examines the key trends emerging from the primary election.
The June Primary offered an early glimpse into how Bay Area voters are thinking about local tax measures heading into the November election, and the results point to a consistent theme: voters are willing to renew or extend existing taxes they already know and understand, but significant concerns remain around passing new ones, particularly as many households struggle with mounting affordability pressures.
That trend was evident in Contra Costa County, where EBLC supported three countywide measures.
Measure A, which renewed the county's Urban Limit Line through 2050, passed comfortably with over 70% of the vote. The measure extended an existing land-use policy that has enjoyed broad voter support for decades and does not create new fees.
The other two countywide measures did not fare as well. Measure B, which would have enacted a new temporary sales tax to address healthcare funding shortfalls, and Measure G, the Contra Costa Community College District bond measure, both failed to reach the thresholds required for passage.
A similar pattern emerged elsewhere in the Bay Area.
In Alameda County, an overwhelming 87% of voters approved Measure A, which reauthorized an existing parcel tax funding the Peralta Community College District without increasing rates. Oakland voters also approved providing tax relief to help attract and sustain local businesses, while simultaneously rejecting a new parcel tax that would have funded police, fire, and homelessness services. This marked the first time in 15 years that Oakland voters shot down a proposed new tax.
The North Bay also followed this trend, where voters approved an extension of the existing quarter-cent sales tax for Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit for another 30 years without increasing the tax rate.
A few notable exceptions were San Francisco's approval of a multi-million dollar earthquake safety bond to fund seismic upgrades and first responder facilities, along with the passage of school district bonds and parcel taxes in communities spanning Lafayette, Moraga, San Jose, Brisbane, East Palo Alto, Sebastopol, and several Marin County districts. Unlike many of the other measures on the ballot, these school measures largely sought to sustain existing services, even when doing so required additional revenue. Together, these results demonstrate that while revenue measures are facing strong headwinds across the region, they can still succeed under the right circumstances.
While primary elections are an imperfect predictor of November outcomes because they attract a smaller and often less representative electorate than general elections, this year's results warrant attention. Across the region, voters sent a remarkably consistent message of caution toward new taxes. Further, turnout as a share of the voting-eligible population was higher than in any California midterm primary since 1982, making the June election an even more meaningful indicator of voter sentiment.
Although local leaders should be wary of drawing sweeping conclusions, the results offer a valuable temperature check for local revenue measures heading into the fall. EBLC is committed to helping critical measures pass by working with public agencies, community partners, and campaign committees to help shape proposals, engage stakeholders, conduct research, and develop messaging that speaks directly to voters' priorities and ongoing concerns about affordability.
For more information on the June Primary results, please reference these resources:
The East Bay Leadership Council is a regional employer-led organization with nearly 90-year history of advancing policies that strengthen the economy and improve quality of life in Contra Costa and Alameda Counties.